One thing history teaches is that the person who conceives a great idea may not get the credit for it. In 1961, a little-known economist at Carnegie Tech named John Muth published a piece in the journal Econometrica demonstrating that people thoughtfully use available information to predict future prices and then make economic decisions based on those “rational expectations.” Muth’s insight seems obvious today, but it was radical in 1961, during the heyday of Keynesian economics.

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